The final portion of the Housing Affordability Summit focused on the national policy landscape, tax uncertainty and long-term strategies for solving the housing crisis. JP Delmore, Assistant Vice President for Government Affairs at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), shared insights into the growing complexity facing homebuilders—and what’s being done at the federal level to address it.
Policy Headwinds: Builders Face Constant Uncertainty
Delmore began by painting a picture of a homebuilding industry increasingly caught in a cycle of economic and political instability. Material costs fluctuate wildly. Interest rates remain stubbornly high. And looming over everything is a potential $4 trillion tax increase if the current tax provisions expire in 2026.
This unpredictability, he explained, makes it extremely difficult for builders to confidently price homes. “How do you price a product when the cost of its components changes every day?” he asked. With the bond market already reacting to federal spending and debt levels, long-term mortgage rates are unlikely to fall below 6% in the near future. NAHB anticipates mortgage rates will gently decline to 6.5% by the end of 2025 and possibly 6% by the end of 2026.
The Cost of Regulation: A Silent Driver of Unaffordability
Delmore emphasized that regulation is a massive—and often invisible—cost driver in residential construction. According to NAHB’s most recent study, regulatory costs now account for $93,870 of the price of a typical new home, representing a 10.9% increase from 2016 to 2021.
This includes everything from zoning restrictions and permitting delays to fees, codes, and compliance requirements at the local, state and federal levels. A new study will be released in 2025, but the trend is expected to continue upward. These costs alone can push a home out of reach for many buyers.
One stark statistic illustrates the impact: every $1,000 increase in home price prices out 113,000 households nationwide.
A National Housing Shortage: 1.5 Million Homes
Delmore reported that the U.S. is currently facing a shortage of roughly 1.5 million housing units. While single-family starts are trending upward, we’re not expected to hit the necessary pace of 1.1 to 1.2 million homes per year until at least 2027.
On the multifamily side, apartment construction has slowed significantly in 2024 and is stabilizing at a lower level. Meanwhile, more Americans are renting for longer periods, delaying their ability to enter the homeownership market. This trend is pushing the average age of first-time homebuyers higher each year.
Immigration, Labor & Trades
One-third of the residential construction workforce in the U.S. is foreign-born, underscoring the importance of immigration policy to housing supply. Delmore said NAHB supports long-term legal pathways for immigrants to enter the trades and help fill the labor gap.
He highlighted the Constructs Act, a proposed federal initiative to provide grant funding to community colleges and training providers to boost residential construction education. With the average wage in residential construction at $37/hour, this sector presents a viable and rewarding career path—if young workers can be recruited and trained.
Supply Chain Risks & Tariffs
Delmore also spoke to supply chain risks, especially in light of rising tariffs. In 2023, 7.3% of building materials used in U.S. housing were imported, with Canada, Mexico, and China accounting for 62% of those imports. Materials like drywall and lumber are particularly vulnerable, as 70% comes from Canada and Mexico alone.
Ongoing trade tensions and the return of a tariff-heavy agenda threaten to add thousands to the cost of a new home. In fact, NAHB estimates that tariffs currently add $10,900 to the average home price.
A Blueprint for Action: NAHB’s 10-Point Plan
To address this multi-layered crisis, NAHB introduced a 10-point Housing Affordability Blueprint aimed at removing barriers to new housing supply at every level of government:
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Eliminate excessive regulations
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Promote skilled trades and careers in construction
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Fix material supply chains and ease costs
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Pass federal tax legislation to expand affordable housing production
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Overturn restrictive local zoning rules
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Streamline permitting processes
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Adopt reasonable, cost-effective building codes
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Reduce local impact fees and upfront taxes
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Improve access to capital for developers
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Modernize employment policies to promote workforce flexibility
This blueprint is not just for builders—it’s a call to action for policymakers, planners, and community leaders.
Housing Supply Accelerator Playbook: A Collaborative Framework
Delmore also introduced the Housing Supply Accelerator (HSA) Playbook, a joint effort by NAHB, the National League of Cities, the American Planning Association, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of REALTORS®. This resource offers practical solutions for boosting attainable housing supply in communities across the country.
The Playbook is designed for local officials, city planners and housing advocates who want to take a systems-based approach to housing challenges, combining zoning reform, permitting solutions and community engagement strategies.
Download the HSA Playbook at: nahb.org/playbook
Read the full Housing Affordability Blueprint at: nahb.org/housing-affordability-blueprint
With housing affordability at a breaking point, NAHB and industry leaders are urging public and private sectors to work together toward lasting solutions. Tackling zoning, regulatory costs, labor shortages, and supply chain volatility requires coordinated action—and the time to act is now.
Make sure to read the rest of this series, including:
Part 1, Housing Affordability: John Hunt Challenges Zoning Norms and
Part 2, Housing Affordability: Economic Headwinds
