(CNN) — The deployment of US warships in the Caribbean to counter drug-trafficking could simply divert the problem to the Pacific, experts in the region warn.
While much attention has focused on the political tension between the United States and Venezuela – even more so after a strike on an alleged Venezuelan drug boat on Tuesday – security specialists warn that the focus on Caribbean trafficking routes by American ships could have serious, unintended consequences for countries struggling to prevent drug flows on the Pacific corridor – such as Ecuador, Peru and Colombia.
“What’s going to happen is that, by blocking this Caribbean corridor, drug traffickers will avoid continuing to transport drugs through that route, because it’s more dangerous, and they’ll incur greater losses. They’ll redirect the flow of drugs,” former Ecuadorian Army Intelligence chief Mario Pazmiño told CNN.
Ecuador is one of the most violent countries in Latin America due to transnational organized crime and has the third-highest drug seizures after the United States and Colombia, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.
Various drug trafficking routes operate from the South American country to Central America, the United States and Europe, where a series of Ecuadorian, Colombian, Mexican and European criminal networks converge.
Pazmiño thinks these routes will get only more popular with traffickers as the Caribbean routes are squeezed off.
“This flow of drugs will no longer leave through Colombia or Venezuela. They will try to use Ecuadorian ports, which are one of our country’s greatest weaknesses and through which drugs are constantly leaving,” he warned.
Indeed, Pazmiño believes this effect is already in play.
On August 25, Ecuador’s Guayaquil Port Authority declared a state of emergency due to rising insecurity and constant extortion threats, which it claims are putting the integrity of the port infrastructure and personnel at risk.
“The facilities of the Guayaquil Port Authority, as well as the personnel working there, are in imminent danger, given that threats have been made to kidnap the crew and pilots and attack vessels,” it said.
Pazmiño believes the situation is closely linked to the military tension in Caribbean waters, and shows the ability of transnational crime to divert its trafficking routes.
The Ecuadorian Navy recently reported that it has intensified its patrols and military operations against drug traffickers.
On August 24, authorities seized 10 tons of drugs with the help of the US Coast Guard, which is providing support under military agreements signed in 2023.
Traffickers ‘take advantage’ as threat to Maduro grows
Daniel Pontón, an expert in criminal policy and crime control at Ecuador’s Institute of Advanced National Studies, said that controlling the Pacific corridor was becoming a much more complex task.
“Drug traffickers know how to take advantage of any moment or vulnerability. Ecuador and other countries in the region need capabilities and cooperation. Joint action is required because the Navy’s capacity is limited,” Pontón added.
Meanwhile, Michelle Maffei, a researcher on international organized crime, conflict, and violence, warned that militarizing the fight against criminal gangs could have the opposite effect to what is intended.
“What this will force is another political conflict. It won’t be a strategy against organized crime. The United States is focused on the Maduro government (in Venezuela). While they’re focused on removing Maduro, the illegal and criminal economy will move more drugs, using semi-submersible vessels or contaminated containers with greater vigor, because they know their focus is on something else,” warns Maffei.
Maffei said authorities should instead focus on fighting corruption.
“We need to implement a radical reform of the judicial system in Ecuador. We have prosecutors who don’t work, judges who are bought off, and lawyers who are also bought off by organized crime groups. If this doesn’t happen in Ecuador, nothing good will come of it,” she added.
Pazmiño also had suggestions for how to combat the problem: “Strengthening the northern border with Colombia, creating a joint task force to cover the entire northern border and making it difficult and impossible for cocaine to spill into Ecuadorian territory.”
Even without increased drug flows, Ecuador is experiencing severe internal violence and recently reported record homicide numbers amid fighting between organized crime gangs. So far this year, the Ministry of the Interior has recorded 5,268 intentional homicides. In 2024, the year ended with 7,062 violent deaths. In 2023, there were 8,248.
The Daniel Noboa administration has called on the international community to support the fight against transnational crime.
But while the region’s eyes are focused on the Caribbean Sea, experts hope this will not lead to an increase in violence and mafia activity in the key areas of cocaine trafficking in the Pacific.
